The Retention Risk Radar

When Kelly, a VP at a fast-growing SaaS company, called me last month, she sounded exhausted.

“I just lost my third director in six months,” she told me. “Each time, we lose momentum, projects stall, and I end up doing their job while scrambling to find a replacement.”

Sound familiar?

If you’re like most executives scaling their teamss, you’ve felt this pain acutely.

The real problem isn’t just that good people are leaving—it’s that you don’t see it coming until it’s too late.

The Warning Signs You’re Missing

Most leadership departures don’t happen overnight. There are subtle indicators that appear 60-90 days before someone decides to leave.

The challenge?

These signals are easy to miss when you’re focused on quarterly targets, board presentations, and putting out daily fires.

Here’s what I shared with Kelly that helped her predict—and prevent—her next potential leadership loss.

The Retention Risk Radar

After analyzing hundreds of leadership transitions across organizations, I’ve identified five early warning signs that appear consistently before a key leader exits:

1. Meeting Engagement Shifts

When a previously engaged leader starts becoming more quiet in meetings, or conversely, becomes argumentative over minor issues, something fundamental has changed.

2. Initiative Decline

Look for subtle shifts in proactivity. Are they still bringing new ideas to the table? Or just executing on assigned tasks?

3. Stakeholder Withdrawal

High-performing leaders maintain strong relationships across departments. When these connections begin to weaken or become purely transactional, it’s often a sign of detachment.

4. Development Disinterest

When leaders stop investing in their own growth or the development of their team, they’ve often mentally checked out.

5. Language Pattern Changes

Note when “we” statements become “you” or “the company” statements.

This shift in language reveals a psychological distancing that precedes physical departure.

Putting This Into Practice

Here’s how to implement the Retention Risk Radar:

Step 1: Create Your Baseline

For each leader on your team, document their current engagement levels across the five areas above.

Be specific about behaviors, not just impressions.

Step 2: Schedule Regular Check-ins

Don’t rely on your quarterly reviews. Set up informal 15-minute check-ins every two weeks with key leaders, focused not on projects but on their experience and perspective.

Step 3: Track Changes Systematically

Create a simple red/yellow/green system for each warning sign.

Document shifts immediately after you notice them, not weeks later when patterns are harder to recall.

The Intervention Window

Once you spot two or more yellow indicators, you have approximately 4-6 weeks to intervene effectively before the situation becomes irreversible.

When Mike, a manufacturing executive, implemented this system, he identified disengagement in his operations director early enough to have a crucial conversation.

It revealed fixable frustrations that, left unaddressed, would have resulted in another costly departure.

Beyond Retention: Building True Bench Strength

The most powerful aspect of the Risk Radar isn’t just keeping good people—it’s creating the psychological safety that allows your leaders to develop others.

When your managers know you’re attentive to their experience and engagement, they’re more likely to do the same for their teams.

This creates the cascading leadership development that transforms an organization from constantly recruiting to consistently promoting from within.

Question for reflection:

Which of your key leaders might be showing early warning signs right now? What conversation could you have this week to explore what’s really going on?

Until next week, Shaun

P.S. Whenever you’re ready, here are 2 ways I can help you:

1. Want to implement the Retention Risk Radar with your team? My 1:1 Executive Coaching Program helps you build systems that predict and prevent talent loss while strengthening your leadership pipeline. I have three spots opening next month. Click here to schedule a complimentary strategy session to see if we’re a good fit.
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